Kashmir : What Next? - (Indolink, 25-10-2002)

-- By Dasu Krishnamoorty

A fortnight ago, people in Kashmir returned a fractured verdict that gave neither of the contestants in the state's 12th election enough seats to form a government. Yet it was a milestone in its half a century history of suicidal politics. This time people have rejected terrorism, dynastic rule and secessionist sentiment. The Indian National Congress and the young People's Democratic Party (PDP) are in the race for power. Since neither party can independently stake a claim to power, a coalition remains the only way-out. So far, agreement has eluded them and the Congress is seriously bent on forming a government with the help of independent legislators.

There is now a dangerous power vacuum that is likely to undo the best thing that ever has happened to the people of Kashmir. The Congress has a history of spearheading the country's freedom struggle and running the federal government for 45 of the 55 years of the republic. Therefore, it must now find ways of hammering out an alliance with the younger and inexperienced People's Democratic Party and frustrate the attempt of the ousted and discredited Farooq Abdullah's National Conference. Any further delay in forging a bipartisan accord will undo the dream of the people for a better administration.

It is natural for a younger party not to lose its first opportunity to run a government. It is the duty of the bigger and senior party to accommodate the anxiety of a nascent political outfit to occupy the helm. The Congress will have to take the blame for any failure in arriving at a settlement. Its numerical strength is enough guarantee against any separatist tendencies that the PDP is likely to acquire. Any further delay will squander the gains people have made in the face of unprecedented violence.

Burdened with the responsibility to run a government, the PDP can be counted upon to put behind its record of rapport with such movements as Hizbul Mujahadeen. Where the voters make multiple choices,coalitions are inevitable. Their potential must be fully exploited to avoid political uncertainty. The PDP has now a greater understanding of the needs of the Kashmiri people than the Congress that has been out of power for a long time.

Today, it is either coalition or disaster. Any coalition that emerges from bipartisan parleys will have to remember that several political groups have stayed away from the election. This clearly shows the need to make the government more representative by opening the doors of consultation to these groups despite their failure to participate in the electoral exercise. Now is the time for reconciliation and not inflexible ideological postures. Both the Congress and the PDP must see the writing on the wall and reach an accord without delay.

The strong possibility of a coalition becoming the first and last choice can tempt parties to revive the plebiscite slogan as bargaining leverage. Even if one of the parties has the nation at the top of its political agenda such mischief can be negated. The offer of the federal government to invite coalition partners to the negotiating table opens up new avenues for a peaceful solution of the 55-year-old problem. The best way to celebrate this unprecedented victory of the people is to strive towards forging a constructive and abiding alliance as an assurance against recurrence of dynastic politics. If the Congress and the PDP create a stalemate it would amount to cheating the people of their hard-earned trophy.

There is now a respite from dynastic rule and this should not create a false sense of euphoria. The last word in the Kashmir drama remains to be said. Any failure to form a government in time will provide the Abdullah clan a free run of the vote market where the independents are free to offer support to the highest bidder. The Congress and the PDP must learn lessons from the fragility of the coalition in Uttar Pradesh and the one vote that brought down an earlier Vajpayee government. If this godsend is squandered it is difficult to imagine when the next bonanza will turn up.

Government formation is not the end of the problem in Kashmir. The problem is and has been Pakistan where its rulers gain their legitimacy through anti-Indian sabotage and subversion. Pakistan started three wars with India and lost all of them. This increases their compulsion to get even with India by any means. Pakistan-sponsored terrorism took a toll of more than 850 lives during the election. Despite the murder and mayhem unleashed by the terrorists and boycott call by a fundamentalist party, the people of Kashmir gave a fitting rebuff to violence.

Now, the international community has started pressing both the countries for a dialogue. Apart from the efforts of the earlier governments, the government led by Atal Behari Vajpayee twice took major initiatives to mend the fences with the sparring neighbor. Vajpayee made a bus journey to Lahore to meet the deposed primeminister Nawaz Sheriff. Last year, even at the risk of conferring legitimacy on a usurper, Vajpayee invited Gen. Pervez Musharraf to Agra. Musharraf embarrassed the host by abusing his hospitality.

Granted that Vajpayee and Musharraf agree to meet, what will they discuss? What is the Kashmir problem? Is it autonomy? The federal government's position on this demand is equivocal, swinging between outright rejection and compromise. As for plebiscite, the United Nations itself has removed it from its agenda. The American administration clearly told advocates of independence for Kashmir that it is not a political option that would receive encouragement from the White House. Vajpayee has firmly put his foot down on the plea to convert the line of control into international border.

None of these issues is a priority. The most urgent task in Kashmir is development that so far has been a hostage to militancy, terrorism and unprincipled politics. The state has no industrial base or basic infrastructures. The people are poor, illiterate and backward, a condition exploited by all political parties. This is an opportunity that neither the Congress nor the PDP can fritter away and push the state deeper into a political and economic abyss.

Dasu Krishnamoorty is a former edit page editor of three national dailies in India and associate professor at Indian Institute of Mass Communication at New Delhi.